Has the dollar trend turned? Whilst this is a difficult question to answer, the evidence has swung away from extended dollar strength to cautious dollar weakness. Despite many opportunities to break the low, euro dollar failed to extend beyond the 1.2330/90 floor last week and this lack of follow through…
The August 2007 to July 2008 euro bubble ended spectacularly; in three months of trading the united currency lost almost quarter of its value against the dollar. Valuations in bubble markets are divorced from reality; they are propelled higher by the internal logic of profit. As long as participants in…
The US dollar’s decline has accelerated as forex traders follow other financial markets in a return to risky assets. The correction will offer a welcome opportunity for traders looking to enter the long-term US Dollar up trend with better risk-reward parameters.
US Dollar Index: The composite COT has dropped from high levels, which warns of a top. However, with speculative longs gradually decreasing and now back to more normal levels, confidence in a top is low.
The economic conditions are rapidly deteriorating in Europe and the European Central Banks is preparing another series of rate cuts in the coming meetings. The Euro currency, in the mean time, has found an important support level against the U.S. dollar. A breakout could lift the currency to higher levels…
Key considerations for the holiday-shortened week ahead include bank solvency, housing, activity surveys, durable goods, income, and core PCE deflator. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the bond market will close early on Wednesday, all day on Thursday (both the bond and stock market), and early on Friday.
Technical analysis shows the euro may continue its downtrend as MACD chart is giving us a selling signal by crossing the signal line to equilibrium level and RSI breaks 70% line and is pointing downwards. We have strong supply in the market as stochastic shows us the market movement and…
The US dollar and Japanese yen failed to break above key resistance points on Friday as risk appetite made a last minute recovery. Event risk will pick up this week for the US dollar, euro, and Canadian dollar, but with the US markets on holiday on Thursday, lower volumes may…
Little to add as we continue in a holding pattern, ‘triangle’ consolidation below retracement resistance. We continue to feel there is another downside move due by the end of this year as the ‘carry trade’ unwinds further and the credit crunch affects more areas of business. As for rallies, these…
UK Chancellor Alistair Darling presents the pre-Budget Report today at 15:30. There is speculation that public borrowing could rise to £120bn over the next two years, with the knock-on effect of pushing public sector net debt up from the current level of 43% of GDP to possibly as high as…